Analysts of financial markets are easily fixated with items of world news to which they attribute super powers, such as the ability to move those markets. Sometimes they are right, sometimes they are wrong, much like forecasters of weather. However scientific a bank of screens and an ebullience of excel spread sheets might look, failed predictions are just around the corner. A primary reason for this inability to soothsay reflects a general disagreement about the relevance of previous data, on

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